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Monday, June 22, 2020

Trump, Low Information Voters and George Floyd: Misdirecting Anger Over the Cause of the Violence

The images of the violence that has accompanied the protests over the police killing of George Floyd has been confusing.  At times, it has been hard to determine just who is responsible for the violence and the looting.  Donald Trump, his Republican allies and their willing accomplices in the conservative media, however, have given their voter base, uneducated white voters, a boogeyman to continue to manipulate their fears.

Having played up the violence that accompanied the peaceful protests over George Floyd's killing  to his intended audience, Trump went further by giving his supporters a tangible enemy.  Relying on a familiar scapegoat, Trump and his colleagues, such as Attorney General Bill Barr, almost immediately pinned the blame for the violence on antifa, threatening to label the group a terrorist organization.  Indeed, Trump sycophant, Florida Representative Matt Gaetz had a tweet of his flagged for promoting violence by Twitter, as he called for antifa to be hunted down as terrorists.  From Trump's perspective, blaming antifa was expedient, and easily inflamed the emotions of his followers.

Antifa is short of anti-fascist.  Calling antifa an organization is generous.  It is not really an organized group, so much as a collection of like-minded individuals who use modern technology, such as social media and the dark web, to coordinate activities.  People who claim to be part of antifa target conservative events and engage in efforts to disrupt them.  For example, people claiming to be part of antifa often show up at college events where controversial conservative speakers are scheduled to talk.  They have shown up at the protests when Trump was inaugurated.  Most notably, antifa showed up in Charlottesville when white supremacists marched to protest the removal of a statue of confederate general Robert E. Lee.

When antifa shows up at these events, they engage in violent disruptive behavior.  At Trump's inauguration, antifa broke store windows and threw rocks at police.  Antifa engaged in similar destruction when conservative speaker Milo Yiannopoulos was invited to speak at Berkley. In Charlottesville, antifa antagonized heavily armed white supremacists who, quite frankly, were already itching for a fight.

There was just one problem.  The police who were on the scene and the FBI have stated that there is no evidence that antifa was involved in the violence that erupted from the protests.

The cause of the violence in the early days of the George Floyd protests was multifaceted and complex.  On one hand, you had young people rightfully angry and frustrated by the failure of this country to properly discipline and prevent police brutality aimed at African-Americans.  Faced with such strong emotions, some people responded with violence.  In particular, when faced with heavily armed response teams from the police, who indiscriminately used hard-line tactics in an effort to control and disperse crowds, some people, filled with emotion, responded by pushing back and throwing rocks.  In a way, this was a reaction of powerlessness against a police force that was responding with the very same types of brutality to which the protestors were objecting.

Some of the violence, and in particular the looting, was perpetrated by opportunists who saw chaos on the streets.  With the police distracted, it was the perfect time to break into Target and take whatever they could carry with the hope of selling their bounty on the black market.  Interestingly, if you looked at the videos that were circulating that documented the looting, there was an awful lot of diversity among the looters.  The sad reality is that there are some truly immoral people in society just waiting for a chance to make a quick buck, especially if the chances of getting caught are low.  It is important to note, however, that the political leaders closest to these situations, such as the mayors, reported that there was a clear distinction between the people peacefully protesting police brutality, and the pockets of violence that broke out.  It is a distinction that unfortunately neither Donald Trump, nor many of the police recognized.

There has also been evidence of forces from outside of the communities where the protests sprung, traveling to the protests and instigating the violence.  Many saw the video out of Minneapolis, for example, of a young, white male, dressed in black, wearing a gas mask and carrying an umbrella to hide a hammer, breaking the windows of an Autozone store and walking away.  To date, no one has identified this person satisfactorily.  However, he was not the only one.  There has been evidence of yet another loosely affiliated set of individuals, known as the boogaloo bois, stoking violence.  Like antifa, it would be generous to describe the boogaloo bois as an organization.  Generally speaking, these are young people, who are convinced that a second civil war is coming, which will be based on racial lines.  They get their name from an '80s sequel of a movie on break dancing called, "Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo."  Some pervert the word "boogaloo," and call it "the big luau."  Bizarrely, some individuals sport Hawaiian shirts as their uniform.  And there have been reports of white men in Hawaiian shirts stoking violence.

The point is that there is no one single cause of the violence and looting.  Blaming a single group, when the actors were from various sources with various motivations, falls right into the hands of those people who don't pay very close attention to political news and current events.  These are the low information voters who make up Trump's base.

By: William J. Kovatch, Jr.

Check out my YouTube channel by clicking here! 

One thing I don't like to talk about is that cancer has left me disabled.  In fact, in my most recent hospitalization, which was over an infection, I suffered an TIA. Even with health insurance, I am amassing huge medical bills.  If you like what you are reading, and would like me to continue writing, and you feel generous enough to help, you can make a one-time non-tax deductible donation to my special needs trust, use this URL:
You can also use this email address to make a PayPal donation:  KovatchSNT@gmail.com

Donations will go to a Special Needs Trust set up for my benefit and controlled by a separate trustee.

Photograph is of a Target store that was looted in Minneapolis, and was taken by Lorie Shaull on May 28, 2020.  You can find licensing information at this link:  https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Target_on_Lake_Street_is_looted_and_graffitied_on_Thursday_morning_after_a_night_of_protests_and_rioting_in_Minneapolis,_Minnesota_(49945831221).jpg



References






Saturday, June 20, 2020

Trump, Low Information Voters, and George Floyd: Conflating Protestors and Rioters

For the uneducated, white voter, who makes up President Donald Trump's base, the protests that broke out across the country in response to the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police may have been not only confusing, but downright scary.  People were legitimately angry.  And that anger was aimed at the police, the very people that white voters are trained to rely upon for their protection.  With such anger aimed at the very people charged with enforcing the law, some violence was to be expected.  Trump, armed with the images of these angry protests, has been trying to manipulate his voter base by intentionally conflating the peaceful, though angry, protests, with the incidental violence.

Images of African-Americans being brutalized by police have sparked outcry and protests for generations.  Yet, the officers responsible have rarely been held accountable for their actions.  As has happened far too often, Americans from all walks of life have been outraged over the treatment of George Floyd, an African-American stopped by the police.  In an unnecessarily brutal detention, police restraining techniques, in particular Officer Derek Chauvin kneeling on George Floyd's neck, resulted in Floyd's death.  Frustrated over the lack of change in police attitudes towards African-Americans, protests broke out nation-wide.  Disappointingly, although not surprisingly, the response of President Donald Trump and his Republican supporters has been, not to acknowledge the wide-spread problem of impunity among the police, but to placate the uneducated white voters who make up the Republicans' base of support.

Let's examine Trump's response to the protests over George Floyd's death, and how they were meant to manipulate the emotions of the base of his support.  Yes, violence has regrettably accompanied the peaceful protests.  But people are angry, and rightfully so.  Institutional racism among the police is a problem that grabs the public's attention over and over again.  Yet nothing seems to change.

Trump, his Republican allies and their willing accomplices in the conservative media have used the images of that anger, and intentionally conflated the peaceful protests with the incidental violence that has accompanied it.  People are yelling angry slogans: "I can't breathe!"  The slogans reflect the dying words of George Floyd.  In fact, we've heard this slogan far too many times in recent years, as over and over again, police restraining techniques have suffocated the African-American males suspected of committing crimes.  And in most cases, those have been minor, non-violent crimes.

Groups of angry people shouting at the police.  Fists in the air.  These are all frightening images, especially for uneducated white voters.

At the same time, news reporters of violence and looting in the streets of major American cities have flooded the internet and the television airwaves. Juxtapose those images of angry protestors with images of those who have taken the opportunity of the protests to engage in violence, and it can become difficult for the uneducated to distinguish between the two.  Trump and his conservative allies took full of advantage of this.

Trump's initial response to the protests was to emphasize the violence, and ignore the root cause.  Trump has called the protestors "THUGS" -- itself a racially charged word.  He tweeted his willingness to use overwhelming military force to control the cities, warning that "when the looting starts, the shooting starts."

That phrase is also tainted with racist overtones.  It was uttered by Miami Police Chief Walter Headley in 1967, in response to similar angry demonstrations over institutional racism that broke out over fifty years ago.  It was a phrase meant to appeal to fears of white voters, with the promise of cracking down on the disturbances, and protect their privileged existence.  The phrase has also been believed to contribute to the intensification of angry racial protests in Miamiin the late 1970s and early 1980s, as oppression continued, and African-American demonstrators became more defiant of this assertion of power.

Speaking of assertion of power, Trump has repeatedly tweeted "LAW & ORDER!"  He admonished governors to dominate the protestors, not only imploring them to call upon the National Guard, but threatening to step in and take over governmental responses to the protests that did not meet his requirement of hard-line suppression.

The very notion that there were peaceful, albeit very angry, protestors, lawfully exercising their First Amendment rights to free speech and free assembly was simply lost on him and his base of support.

Trump's reaction to the protests shows that he has no intention to listen to the grievances of the protestors. His goal has not been to engage in constructive dialogue to address the systemic problems.  He just wants to crack down on them.  And in doing so, to ignite the passions of uneducated white voters, who could only fear the loss of control being portrayed by the conservative echo chamber.

Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham of Fox News have all emphasized the violence and the looting and called for strong police and National Guard response.  Republican politicians, such as Matt Gaetz, Tom Cotton, Kevin McCarthy, joined with this appeal to scared white voters, also failing to recognize the grievances of the protestors, and calling for a harsh, military-like crack-down.

One of the worst of such appeals came from Republican Sid Miller, Commissioner of the Texas Department of Agriculture.  On May 31st, Miller posted the following on Facebook:
  • Folks this is not a protest. It is a well orchestrated attack on America's major cities with plans to attack the police, riot, loot, and burn buildings. The so-called ‘protestors’ are, in fact, domestic terrorists who were organized and paid for by George Soros to further divide our country. These terrorists were bused into these large cities. We must repel this attack and hold those responsible for their actions. This must be brought to a stop now or we will lose control of our country!
Miller succeeded in wrapping together all of the elements of popular conspiracy theories that motivate the low information voters that support Trump.  It was meant to blur the lines between the lawful and peaceful protests and the incidental violence that accompanied them.

But the most egregious example came from President Trump himself.  Fearful of the presence of angry protestors who had gathered in Lafayette Square, a park directly across the street from the White House where all sorts of protestors have historically gathered, on Saturday, May 30th, Trump retreated to an underground bunker in the White House.  There, Trump only inflamed passions further, tweeting about "vicious dogs" and "ominous weapons" that would await protestors who got out of hand.

Trump grew irritated over media reports, which portrayed him as a coward hiding in the safety of the White House bunker.  He wanted to project a show of strength, and manipulate the reports that someone had broken into St. John's Episcopal Church the night before and set fire to the basement of the parish house.  The location of the church next to Lafayette Square is historically significant, as almost every President since James Madison has worshiped there at least once.  His goal was clearly to conflate the violence with the peaceful demonstrations.

On Monday, June 1st, he arranged for U.S. Park Police to use chemical irritants, smoke canisters and flash-bang grenades on people who had been peacefully exercising their First Amendment rights, to clear Lafayette Square.  The images of Park Police using brutal, physical force to attack peaceful protestors merely exercising their First Amendment rights lawfully, was shocking.  These were unjustifiable war-like techniques, including the use of a police shield as a blunt-force weapon to strike a cameraman of an Australian news crew.  Indeed, the indiscriminate police actiondrove  away the very Rector of St. John's, Gini Gerbasi.

We learned that this authoritarian show of force was perpetrated specifically to allow Trump to appeal to his base by projecting an image of strength and religiosity.  Trump had just finishing an inflammatory speech in the Rose Garden again encouraging governors "dominate" the protestors, "establish an overwhelming law enforcement presence," and pushing for the violence to be "quelled."  He then made a spectacle of walking from his speech, through the park that he just had cleared, to use St. John's Episcopal Church as a backdrop for a photo opportunity, as he held a Bible aloft awkwardly. 

It bears emphasizing that Trump didn't care a lick about how St. John's and the the Episcopal Church themselves wanted to react to the damage to their building.  This stunt wasn't for the benefit of the church.  It was to benefit his own ego, and ignite the passions of his Evangelical Christian followers.

He didn't even consult the church before his stunt.  In fact, his Park Police not only chased the Rector away, but disrupted the church's chosen response to the protests.  Rev. Gerbasi and her colleagues were passing out water and snacks to protestors, and offering prayerful support.  Indeed, her op-ed piece in the Washington Post offers further eye witness evidence that the demonstrations on that evening were peaceful.  Mariann Budde, Washington Bishop of the Episcopal Church, the very denomination that owns and operates St. John's, immediately condemned Trump for using the church and the Bible as objects in a politically motivated message.

Nonetheless, this piece of showmanship served its purpose.  On cue, white Evangelical Christians expressed support for the move, and criticized anyone who saw Trump's use of the Bible as sacrilege.  (Such Evangelicals ought to consult the Gospel themselves, paying close attention to Matthew 6:1.)

Trump's tactic is not going to unite the country in an effort to solve the problem of police aggression.  His tactic is just going to further divide the country, in particular along racial lines, and ignore a festering issue that has become intolerable to many.  Just conflating the protests and their goals with the incidental violence, and keeping his voters scared, will only further divide America, and continue to empower those among the police who resist the imposition of accountability among those officers who continue to oppress and brutalize the African-American community.

By:  William J. Kovatch, Jr.

Check out my YouTube channel by clicking here! 

One thing I don't like to talk about is that cancer has left me disabled.  In fact, in my most recent hospitalization, which was over an infection, I suffered an TIA. Even with health insurance, I am amassing huge medical bills.  If you like what you are reading, and would like me to continue writing, and you feel generous enough to help, you can make a one-time non-tax deductible donation to my special needs trust, use this URL:
You can also use this email address to make a PayPal donation:  KovatchSNT@gmail.com

Donations will go to a Special Needs Trust set up for my benefit and controlled by a separate trustee.

The photograph “George Floyd protests in Washington, D.C. at the White House perimeter” and was taken by Frypie. Licensing information can be found here:  https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:George_Floyd_protests_in_Washington,_D.C._1250_08.jpg


References

Videos of Events



News Articles and Analysis

Ballasy, Nicholas, "House GOP Leader: 'Rioters and anarchists are not protestors,'" Just the News (June 5, 2020).


Edmondson, Catie, "Trump's Response to Protests Draws Bipartisan Rebuke in Congress," The New York Times (June 2, 2020).


"George Floyd death: More large protests in US but violence falls,” BBC News (June 2, 2020).


Gini Gerbasi “I’m a priest. The police forced me off church grounds for Trump’s photo op.,” The Washington Post (June 3, 2020).

Lamothe, Dan, "Pentagon's top general apologizes for appearing alongside Trump in Lafayette Square," The Washington Post (June 11, 2020).



Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Can You Guilt Your Way Out of a Recession?

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on the economy. To enforce social distancing measures, businesses were shut down, and people were laid off. Over 40 million people applied for unemployment compensation.  The Federal Government did respond. Congress passed a special $600 per week federal benefit for unemployment compensation that lasts through the end of July. Congress also provided an advance on a future tax rebate, that was the $1,200 per person stimulus check. Finally, Congress  provided low interest loans to small businesses, which could be forgiven if they kept their people employed.  As state governments give approval for businesses to re-open, the question is whether the government assistance is enough to kick-start the economy to get it moving again.  While many experts believe it will take a long time for the United States to get its economy rolling again, there are members of Congress, particularly some Republican senators, who think they can guilt the economy out of recession.  Let me explain.

We have a consumer-driven economy.  People need to buy things to keep stores open.  Stores need to arrange to have merchandise on their shelves.  The service industries, lawn service, pool service, cleaning services, all need people to pay for those services in order to employ people.  To put simply, you, the consumer need to have enough disposable income to go buy things and services.  Disposable income being, of course, money left over after you have paid for the necessities like housing, food, and health insurance.

But the economy has been shut down for over two months.  And Congress was really late in approving of the first stimulus package, the CARES Act.  Then it took quite some time for the IRS to get their systems functioning properly in order to pass out all those checks.  While some people got their payments in mid-April, others had to wait until mid-May.  Still others never received their payments, and may need to wait for next year's tax filing before they receive it.

At the same time, rent and mortgage payments are still due.  Families need to be fed.  And for some people, being laid off means they have to pay for their own health insurance.  In many cases, the $1,200 per person stimulus payments were simply not enough to cover the necessities for one month.  Sure, there were protections from evictions, so you did not have to worry about being tossed in the streets if you couldn't pay the rent.  But that rent still accumulated.  Families have had to dip into savings, if they had them.  Even when people start going back to work, those arrearages will need to be addressed, especially since moratoriums on evictions are expiring.  There's not going to be a lot of disposable income readily available right away.

To address this, some political leaders have pushed for a second stimulus package.  There had been arguments about providing every adult a basic income of $2,000 per month until the national emergency is lifted.  Unfortunately, when the Government provides these benefits, they have to be paid for.  Republicans in the Senate don't want to raise taxes on businesses, which to a degree makes sense because we want those businesses to hire the people back.  There have been proposals to just print a couple of trillion dollars up out of nowhere to finance the benefits.  But when you print that much extra money, you risk hyper-inflation.  That, by the way, is what led to the Nazis taking over Germany in the 1930s.  So just printing money is a bad idea.  The only other solution is to borrow the money.  But that involves our Government taking on more debt, and paying more interest on that debt, which could lead to higher taxes.

The Republican Party has been traditionally known as deficit hawks.  Meaning that they try to protect the Government from spending too much money that they have to borrow a lot of it.  Well, at least when they're not talking about using so-called tax reform to give tax breaks to the big corporations.  But those programs to help the poor, well you better bet they will fight to avoid "excessive" spending on them.

Among the proposals made by Democrats has been to extend the extra $600 per week in unemployment benefits beyond July 31st.  But many Republicans will not hear of it.  You see, with the extra $600 per week, some people on unemployment are actually making more money than when they were working.  Republicans claim that they have an incentive to just sit around and live off of the Government's dime. What we really need to get the economy up and rolling again, is for people to just go back to work.  Their incentive to go back to work is to cut off that safety net.  As long as that extra money is there, who is going to want to go back to work.

Essentially, the Senate Republicans want to guilt you out of the recession.

There are just several problems with this.  Let's start to unpack them.  First, the number of people applying for unemployment compensation has just been massive.  This is no exaggeration.  The last time we saw numbers like these, it was the Great Depression.  And that has caused stress on the unemployment system.  Especially in Florida, where the former Governor purposefully designed the system to apply for unemployment benefits to be hard, and frustrating.  Because if it's frustrating, maybe you'll fed up, and get your ass up and go back to work.  That is just how most Republicans think.  Nonetheless, the point in that the official unemployment rate may be lower than what is being reported.  Which means there are people who are out of a job due to no fault of their own, who currently have no income.

Second, the theory that people will intentionally wait around until the extra federal unemployment benefits expire to find a job is based on two assumptions.  The first is that there will be jobs available on August 1st.  But as I explained above, for jobs to be available, people need to have disposable income.  If they are still preoccupied with paying down the bills that have piled up since March, there won't be a lot of disposable income to buy new things.  Indeed, given that many families have dipped into savings, the greater priority after paying for the basics may be to rebuild those savings. 

Add to that the fact that some businesses will be downsizing out of necessity.  There is still a new virus out there that is highly contagious and could easily overcome our medical resources.  We still need to be engaging in safe practices, like social distancing, once those businesses open.  People need to sit or stand further apart.  So personal service businesses, like hair stylists, personal trainers, restaurants, will not initially be hiring all of their employees back.  Indeed, even if sports come back, they will be televised only.  That means no jobs for ticket takers, security guards, hot dog vendors.  You can't just waive a wand, and expect that as of August 1st everything will be back to normal.

(Set aside, for the moment that the Republicans know how dangerous opening the economy too fast can be, as evident by their push for businesses to be immune from liability for opening too quickly and causing their employees to come down with the virus.)

The second assumption is that people will be intentionally waiting around until the end of July to start finding a job.  If people are being rational, they will understand that the extra unemployment compensation is a limited thing.  They are going to realize that a job that might pay less than unemployment now, is going to be worth more in the long run, especially when those jobs are going to be scarce for quite some time.

But this is all part of the normal Republican playbook: to demonize the poor, and to try to shame them into working more.  But when you think of it, people are being told inconsistent things.  On the one hand, you will hear Republicans say that more people should have been scrimping and saving.  They shouldn't have been buying that $4 Starbucks coffee every day.  They shouldn't go to the movies when they have cable TV at home.  Why are they eating out instead of cooking at home?  And yes, Americans need to save more, that's a point we can agree on.

Except, we are also being told that we need to spend money to get the economy rolling.  This is a consumer-driven economy.  If that person stopped buying Starbucks, then the store won't need as many barristers.  If you don't go to the movies, the theater will need fewer ushers and concession salespeople.  Every time you forgo going to a restaurant, there's less need for wait staff and cooks.

So it's a vicious cycle.  And it requires tough choices.  Either, you let the economy come back on its own gradually, in the meantime possibly hurting good, hardworking people who won't be able to find a job right away.  Or, if you want the recovery to start earlier, the Government will have to borrow the money to provide people with some money while they are out of work to pay their basic bills.  Indeed, the Government may need to provide a little extra if it expects people to spend money on non-essential consumables and services.

What is clear, is that if there are no jobs to come back to, you can't just guilt somebody off of unemployment benefits.

By:  William J. Kovatch, Jr.

Check out my YouTube channel by clicking here! 

One thing I don't like to talk about is that cancer has left me disabled.  Even with health insurance, I am amassing huge medical bills.  If you like what you are reading, and would like me to continue writing, and you feel generous enough to help, you can make a one-time non-tax deductible donation to my special needs trust, use this URL:
You can also use this email address to make a PayPal donation:  KovatchSNT@gmail.com

Donations will go to a Special Needs Trust set up for my benefit and controlled by a separate trustee.



References

Aratani, Lauren, “‘Designed for us to fail’: Floridiansupset as unemployment system melts down,” The Guardian (April 15, 2020).







Konish, Lori, "More $1,200 checks?  Maybe $2,000 a month?  The stimulus proposals that could put more money in your wallet," CNBC (June 2, 2020).

"Stimulus check: how many Americans have not received thepayment," AS English (May 31, 2020).