I repeat, take this with a grain if salt. In the next sixth months, we could have another major natural disaster. A major political scandal could hit Joe Biden that would convince his voters that Donald Trump is the better choice (it would have to be one hell of a whopper). An incredible economic recovery could happen. We could be at war with Iran. Trump could try to declare martial law before November.
Still, the polls from the several states in the month of May are enlightening. Keep in mind the result of the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 304 electoral votes out of the needed 270. But, he lost the popular vote by almost 3 million. Trump won three big prizes by less than one percent of the vote in each contest: Pennsylvania (20 votes), Michigan (16 votes), and Wisconsin (10 votes). His campaign already had an uphill fight because his approval rating had never breached 50% for any significant period of time. Plus, he could barely afford to lose even one of any of those three states. Prior to 2016, all three had been Democratic states in presidential elections since 1992.
As I watched the protests over George Floyd's death at the hands of Minneapolis Police on TV spread across the country, and saw Trump's ridiculous response via Twitter, I just had to check the latest polls to see where things stand. I hadn't looked at the polls in months, but I was curious at how the Trump/Biden race stood. I was a little surprised by what I saw.
You see, in addition to the three states expected to be battleground states, there had been a significant demographic shift in Florida, a state that Trump won by a small margin. There are some traditionally significant states, such as Ohio, which have a history of being close or a bellweather state. Then there were some states that Trump won by a significant margin that had also experienced a sizable demographic shift. They included Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. Finally, there's Utah. While this has traditionally been a strong Republican state, Mormons don't always see eye to eye with Evangelical Christians. To be blunt, Mormons tend to be far more consistent in applying their moral values to choosing a candidate, whereas Evangelical Christians are willing to accept serial adultery, among other moral failings, so long as the candidate supports the right position on a few key issues, abortion being chief among them. Many of these races have either tipped, are extremely close, or are within a reasonable striking distance.
I took the website, 270 to Win, and had the states sorted by the most recent poll, or the average of the two or three most recent polls. I then went to the electoral college map, and awarded Joe Biden each state where he had a lead of three percentage points or more. The result was 318 eighteen electoral votes for Biden. In Pennsylvania, for example, Biden currently holds a seven point lead. In Michigan and Wisconsin, the lead is six points. For 2020, that's all Joe Biden needs. Game over. But, Biden also currently holds a four point lead in Arizona and a three point lead in Florida. **cue record scratch sound effect** Those states being in play, and leaning Biden this significantly so close to the November elections is a game changer. Under this scenario, Biden has forty-eight electoral votes more than is necessary to win the presidency.
But that's not all. Let's say Biden wins the one state where he currently has a two point lead. That's North Carolina. Yeah, I know, margin of error, blah, blah, blah. But just for kicks, humor me. Well, that brings Biden's total up to 333.
Now let's say the economic recovery is slow to start. Maybe the recession from COVID-19 sticks around. Maybe everyone but Donlad Trump's most ardent supporters get tired of his divisive tweets. Maybe the trend that undecided voters break against the incumbent, particularly in bad economic times, rings true this year. Well, in Georgia (16 votes), the race is currently tied. In Iowa (6 votes), Trump leads by a mere two percentage points. Trump's lead in Utah (6 votes), Ohio (18 votes) and Texas (38 votes) is a mere three points, and in each state the undecideds account for more than ten percent of those polled. In a perfect storm, if a wave of anti-Trumpism sweeps the states, Joe Biden could find himself with a whopping 417 electoral college votes.
Not convinced? Just peruse the state results on the website RealClear Politics. These races are extremely close. Plus, in all the battleground states where Trump has a lead, the latest data is from May 10th or earlier. That is well before his debacle in responding to the George Floyd killing and the subsequent nationwide protests. In fact, if you visit the state polling data available through CNN, you get very similar results.
Do I truly believe Joe Biden will win 417 electoral college votes? No. I'm merely putting out there that there is a not too insignificant chance that this could happen. As I said, we are still a long way off.
There is one thing that I do believe. There are multiple avenues open to Biden to take away just enough states to squeak out an electoral college win. I believe he should maximize his chances of doing that in each state where the race is close, including states that currently lean Trump. Biden has indicated that he wants to choose a woman as his vice presidential running mate. Before this week, the front runners in the Beltway rumor mill were Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer. I've always believed choosing another Senator would have been a bad idea. Klobuchar and Kamala are more valuable either on the Judiciary Committee or as Attorney General. My perusal of the current polling data shows that Biden already has a fairly healthy lead in Michigan. Plus, recent events show Gretchen Whitmer's husband is a bit of a wild card. Georgia is the closely competitive state that could be Biden's crown jewel. For that reason, I believe that Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams, who lost the 2018 gubernatorial election by a mere 50,000 votes, in the face of alleged voter roll shenanigans by the victor Brian Kemp, perpetrated when he was the Secretary of State, is Biden's best choice at the moment.
By: William J. Kovatch, Jr.
Check out my YouTube channel by clicking here!
One thing I don't like to talk about is that cancer has left me disabled. Even with health insurance, I am amassing huge medical bills. If you like what you are reading, and would like me to continue writing, and you feel generous enough to help, you can make a one-time non-tax deductible donation to my special needs trust, use this URL:
You can also use this email address to make a PayPal donation: KovatchSNT@gmail.com
Donations will go to a Special Needs Trust set up for my benefit and controlled by a separate trustee.
References:
Polling Data
CNN, "2020 Presidential Election Polls," (site accessed May 30, 2020).
270 to Win, "2020 President: Consensus Electoral Map," (May 24, 2020).
270 to Win, "2020 Presidential Election Polls," (site accessed May 30, 2020).
RealClear Politics, "Election 2020 Presidential Polls," (site accessed May 30, 2020).
Demographic Trends
"North Carolina's New Demographic Face," The Charlotte Observer (site accessed May 30, 2020).
Schneider, Mike, "Census shows greatest Hispanic growth rate in north Florida," Associated Press (June 21, 2018).
12 News, "All eyes will be on Arizona for how to handle majority-minority shift" (November 29, 2018).
Ura, Alexa and Jin, Connie Hanzhang, "Texas gained almost nine Hispanic residents for every additional white resident last year," The Texas Tribune (June 20, 2019).
Wilcox, Amanda, "The Six Demographics Changing North Carolina and What It Means for Communicators (Part 1)," Eckel & Vaughan (July 6, 2018).
Political Issues
Alba, Davey; Conger, Kate and Zhong, "Twitter Places on Trump Minneapolis Tweet, Saying It Glorified Violence," The New York Times (May 29, 2020).
Bradner, Eric, "Whitmer faces backlash over husband's 'failed attempt at humor' about their boat," CNN (May 27, 2020).
Newkirk II, Vanne R., "The Georgia's Governor's Race Has Brought Voter Suppression into Full View," The Atlantic (November 6, 2018).
Park, Benjamin, "How Mitt Romney's impeachment vote was influenced by his Mormom faith," NBC News (February 6, 2020).
No comments:
Post a Comment