I don't think it will be long now.
Shortly after the election, I had lunch with a friend who was amazed that I predicted a Donald Trump victory even when he was far behind in the polls. I made another prediction that day, telling her that I did not believe Trump would last his entire term.
My reasoning? He didn't do this for any grand policy reasons or love of country. He ran for love of Trump. Trump is a skillful self-promoter and learned very well how to get ratings in a reality tv world. He used that to manipulate his popular name and give the public a very entertaining (albeit disturbingly so) campaign. But he doesn't have the skills to govern.
If you look at his business career, how did he function? It wasn't through any powerful negotiating skills, or business acumen. It was simply by throwing his money around. Just ask the many contractors who worked on Trump projects but never got paid their contracted rates. Presumably, they were attracted to work on his real estate developments by his name and the promise of full payment. But when push came to shove, and full payment was not forthcoming, Trump's response was to say "sue me." Since the little guy knew Trump had the means to buy fancy lawyers and tie up any lawsuit in protracted litigation, the little guy would give in and take what crumbs Trump had to offer. Money won.
But that was not going to be the reality of the world Trump was facing once he got in the White House. The President may be the focus point of government, mostly because it's easier for the media to follow one person. But the government consists of another 535 large egos residing just down the road on Pennsylvania Avenue as well as thousands of independently minded people in the judiciary. These are people who have their own sources of power, and are not solely dependent on Trump for their position. I explained to my friend that Trump was going to find that he couldn't always get what he wanted simply by throwing his name and money around. This was particularly true given how small the Republican majority in the Senate was, and how he had personally insulted many GOP Senators.
Trump enjoyed greater support in the House. But that was due mainly to GOP gerrymandering which had given disproportionately large power to the most radical wing of the Republican Party, all in the name of creating safe GOP districts. It is this wing of party that supported Trump largely due to their hate for Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and because Trump was willing to entertain them with aggressive attacks on their Democratic opponents. But no one with any hint of intelligence had ever accused Trump of being a true conservative.
So conservatives in the House who did not like Trump would simply be biting their lips and biding their time until Trump was no longer useful to them. If Satan himself could get their agenda passed, well then so be it, so long as Satan had a high approval rating.
But, a number of things have happened since Inauguration Day. First, starting on day one, the press has refused to give the President the adoration he thinks he deserves, engaging in a constant battle with the Administration. And during much of this battle, the press has unearthed inaccuracy after inaccuracy from the White House.
Second, the President reportedly has become increasingly dissatisfied with his job, as he did not realize the full magnitude of what running a government would entail. It is as if Trump expected that once he became President, all he had to do was be the face of the government, and receive the adulation of the people. He falsely convinced himself of his own popularity, and has been surprised that running the White House was not as easy as putting on the show of running a fake executive board room on tv.
Third, in his dissatisfaction with the job, and his drive to be popular, he allegedly isolated himself into spending an inordinate amount of time watching tv news and talk shows, and then uncontrollably tweeting nasty things about those he thought were mean to him.
Fourth, he offered no vision or support for what was supposedly his agenda, other than cajoling other Republicans. As a result, his own party's long-running promise to repeal Obamacare crumbled. Trump was left unable to fathom how a GOP majority in both houses could fail to pass a bill, indeed any bill, on the subject. And as his agenda has failed, he has repeatedly and publicly attacked members of his own party in Congress. Indeed, whenever his agenda has faced road blocks from other people in power, his response has always been to attack other branches of government. This is the same thing he did to the judiciary as his travel ban faced defeat after defeat in the courts.
Fifth, more interested in protecting his name, Trump has engaged in behaviors that appear to many to be a cover-up, if not a campaign of obstruction of justice, regarding the investigation of Russia's possible involvement in the presidential election. His megalomaniacal drive to kill the investigation has led to the firing of an FBI Director, attacks on an Attorney General who had been his earliest and most loyal supporter, consideration of self-pardoning, a desire to fire the new investigator, and possibly creating legal jeopardy for his own son.
Sixth, his own staff in the White House has descended into chaos. Indeed, with all of the seismic changes in staffing, it has recently been reported that Reince Priebus and Steve Bannon, who were thought to be bitter rivals at the beginning of the Administration, had become close allies just before Priebus' firing in an effort for self-preservation against the Trump inner circle. It is chaos of the President's own making and apparent entertainment, as it has been reported that he fired Priebus for failing to lower himself to Anthony Scaramucci's level and fight back against the Mooch's shockingly base attacks.
It is a chaos that required a former Marine Corps General, who's major accomplishment in the Administration to date had been to threaten to separate mothers from their children as they sought to cross the southern border desperately seeking to flee the violence in Central America, to assume control of the White House staff and fire the colorful but abrasive Director of Communications after the Mooch had been on the job for only ten days.
And finally, polls have been published showing not only historically low approval ratings for Trump, but also that the House of Representatives could very well be in play in the mid-term elections.
It is this last development that could very well be the turning point. It appears that Trump may no longer be useful to congressional Republicans. Indeed, his brand name may even bet hurtful to their electoral aspirations. With the President showing that he cannot even be loyal to members of his own party, will they now be loyal to him?
Based on all of these developments, I would not be surprised if efforts are being made to gently push Trump into resignation. He is reportedly not happy being in the "dump" of the White House, and spends so much time outside of Washington anyway. As much as the GOP desperately want Chief of Staff Kelly to control the President, Trump will be who Trump is. He cannot be pushed to the shadows of his own presidency while the big boys do the actual governing. And so, with Republican pressure, I think the time is nearing where the Trump Presidency will end. If his poll numbers keep declining, the party will either find a face-saving way to have Trump resign, or they will find the backbone to remove him.
William J. Kovatch, Jr.
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